Networks Fear NFL-Less fall

Original Article: AXIOS, by Mike Allen, July 8th, 2020

9. Networks fear NFL-Less fall

Inside an "NFL on Fox" production truck. Photo: Michael Abdella/Detroit Free Press via Reuters

While all major sports scramble to rescue their seasons, the networks are fixated on the NFL, which accounted for 41 of the 50 top-rated telecasts of any kind in 2019, the WashPost's Ben Strauss writes.

• Why it matters: The NFL accounted for 39% of all ad revenue for Fox last year, 24% for CBS, 21% for NBC and 17% for ESPN (including ABC playoff simulcasts).

"It’s practically the only thing on the minds of the networks," John Kosner, a former ESPN executive who is an industry consultant, told the Post.

• "If you lost an NFL season, you’re looking at a financial hemorrhage."

For TV networks, losing NFL season would be catastrophic

Original Article: The Washington Post, by Ben Strauss, July 2nd, 2020

Throughout the spring and into the summer — without the NBA playoffs and baseball’s opening weeks — the sports world has continued to feel the steady drumbeat of the NFL. The league opened free agency as usual, providing news-making moments such as Tom Brady signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and then its April draft went off without a hitch, delivering boffo ratings for ESPN.

For the TV networks and sports media outlets that cover the league, this has been most welcome. But as the calendar flips to July, with NFL training camps set to open at the end of the month, doubts have surfaced about the viability of football season. Novel coronavirus cases are spiking in states across the country. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said football players may need to be in a bubble environment for the season to be played. Los Angeles Rams Coach Sean McVay wondered aloud how teams will be able to both play and take precautions.

“I mean, we’re going to social distance, but we play football?” McVay said during a recent media appearance. “It’s really hard for me to understand all this.”

While there remains plenty of optimism the NFL will play — somehow, someway — networks are fixated on the league’s fall schedule given its dominant position as America’s most valuable television property. They are invested, of course, in the planned returns of Major League Baseball, the NBA and other sports, but none carry the importance of the NFL, which accounted for 41 of the top 50 rated telecasts of any kind in 2019. The lack of certainty has led to uncomfortable conversations among executives.

“It’s practically the only thing on the minds of the networks,” said John Kosner, a former ESPN executive who is an industry consultant. “If you lost an NFL season, you’re looking at a financial hemorrhage.”

All four networks that broadcast the NFL — CBS, ESPN, Fox and NBC — declined to comment on contingency plans or how they are thinking about the 2020 season. But a senior ESPN employee recently lamented that there is no fallback plan even worth considering if the NFL cannot play, because nothing can replace the content or revenue that comes with it, according to a person with knowledge of the discussion. At Fox Sports, at least one executive has told an employee that no NFL season would mean trouble for the network, according to multiple people familiar with the discussion.

No network is more dependent on the NFL than Fox, which pays more than $1.5 billion each year for two NFL packages: one on Sunday afternoon and the other on Thursday night. The NFL, including pre- and postgame coverage, accounted for nearly 40 percent of the minutes spent viewing the network last year, according to research firm MoffettNathanson.

For the league’s other broadcast partners, the NFL’s share of minutes viewed was smaller but still a hefty 10 to 13 percent last year. ESPN pays roughly $2 billion for “Monday Night Football,” CBS pays roughly $1 billion for its Sunday package, and NBC pays $950 million for “Sunday Night Football.” All bring in massive amounts of advertising for their NFL games.

Data compiled by advertising measurement firm iSpot illustrates how valuable the league is in terms of ad dollars. Last football season, CBS raked in roughly $1.5 billion in NFL advertising, which represents nearly 25 percent of the network’s total advertising haul for 2019 (not including the Super Bowl). NBC collected shy of $1.5 billion, also more than 20 percent of the network’s ad dollars for last year.

Fox was the most reliant on the NFL, bringing in nearly $2 billion from the league’s games last season, not including the Super Bowl — an amount that would be 40 percent of the network’s overall ad revenue from 2019. Additionally, advertisers that buy into NFL games often also must buy packages for other programming across a network’s schedule.

The NFL numbers at ESPN were somewhat less significant — around $500 million and less than 20 percent of its advertising revenue — but they don’t come close to capturing the importance of NFL highlights and discussion segments to the 24-hour cable network’s studio programming. ESPN is also the network that is likely to be affected most by a canceled or shortened college football season, which is considered by health experts to be at greater risk than the NFL because of its lack of a central authority, varying testing policies and uncertainty over whether students will be able to return to campus this fall. ESPN and its Disney-owned broadcast partner, ABC, received more than $1 billion in advertising revenue from the sport last year.

The NBA and MLB are more important to regional sports networks. The entire MLB season and playoffs delivered less than $700 million to national broadcasters ESPN, Fox, Turner and MLB Network in 2019. The entire 2018-19 NBA season and postseason accounted for a total of roughly $1.5 billion for ESPN, ABC, Turner and NBA Network, according to iSpot.

Since the pandemic began, ESPN, Fox and NBC have asked top talent to take pay cuts as they treaded water waiting for sports to return. Current and former executives predicted far more draconian developments without an NFL season — from layoffs to severe cost savings to networks being forced to take out large loans. One former Fox executive predicted studio shows would be hit the hardest.

“As the recent COVID-19 data points turn more negative, we are growing increasingly worried that the scheduled return of all sports in the coming weeks and into the fall will be impacted in different ways, leading to more pain for our media companies,” read a MoffettNathanson report published in late June.

In the longer term, said David Hill, a former president of Fox Sports, missing an NFL season hurts the broadcast networks in their battle for relevance against streaming services such as Netflix. Their main advantage in that struggle, Hill said, remains the NFL, and sports continue to be one of the key drivers for consumers paying for cable packages. According to MoffettNathanson, traditional paid TV subscriptions fell by 1.8 million in the first quarter of this year as the pandemic hit and live sports were mostly canceled. It was the highest-ever rate of cord-cutting in a single quarter.

“The NFL is absolutely key because it plays into the essence of what the network is,” Hill said. “It’s becoming the only way that networks can talk to consumers. If families are sitting in their living rooms watching the streamers — and they’re not turning on the networks for the NFL — there’s going to be less awareness in anything they’re doing.”

Regardless of whether the NFL season goes ahead, the league’s broadcast agreements are set to expire in 2021 and 2022, meaning the same networks will have to pony up what many observers expect to be large increases in rights fees — potentially as much as double the current figures, some industry insiders believe — even as they are potentially scrambling to patch budget holes for the current year. This week, Fox ended its broadcast agreement with the U.S. Open golf tournament several years early, a move that indicates a further commitment to its core properties, the biggest of which is the NFL.

“If you miss the NFL season, I think it makes the networks even more desperate to sign it again,” Hill said.

Still, alongside the simmering concern about what a lost season might do to the networks is the hope for what a season could mean. Given the high ratings for the draft, plus the possibility that fans won’t be allowed to attend games and people could still be limited in what they can do outside, there remains the chance 2020 could be a banner year for NFL broadcasts.

Hill said that, for whatever uncertainty exists now and in the coming weeks, he believes the NFL will find a way to play its season.

“It’s one of the very rare, absolutely must-have items,” he said. “And I would imagine that everyone being locked inside would be good for them, too.”

Prepared for Post-COVID Sports?

Original Article: Sports Business Journal, by Ed Desser and John Kosner, June 24th, 2020

“Crisis” derives from the Greek word “krisis,” which means “turning point in a disease.”  While all of us hope for medical breakthroughs signaling the end to the COVID-19 scourge, we have no assurances right now.  What we do have is time and with summer finally here, our recommendation is that all of us make the best use of that once in a career opportunity to put ourselves and our properties on firmer ground. From a rights/property holder perspective, we think you should focus on the following:

Phase One: Re-Think.

Have you put your most pressing problems into priority order? With revenues prospects down, how best to trim expenses?  What do your media and sponsorship agreements state in terms of Force Majeure, and compensation adjustment procedures? How best to maintain these vital relationships?  We are just beginning to understand the ramifications of COVID from a media rights perspective.  Anticipate some form of renegotiation (see SBJ 5/18/20 “Follow the Money”).

But your people are central to keeping things together.  Who are your most critical personnel, what are their key issues in this environment, and how do you keep them close and secure?  What are you doing to complement Zoom communication? Who are your most vital customers, including fans and media partners, and what are you doing (communications, engagement) for them during this time-out?  Are you using idle production capacity to help your media partners fill their huge un/under-programmed expanse of airtime? 

In the midst of your team’s extended “home stand,” we suggest planning and organizational opportunities.  Do some long term planning:  Think about reorganization/streamlining to focus on high-return future opportunities.  Three practical topics: 

1. What is the status of your media agreements?  What do you want these to be going forward – including whether or not you’re looking to expand your direct relationship with your fans? 

2. How are you set up across existing and emerging social media platforms?  Have you identified and connected with your sports’ key influencers?  These will be even more important post-COVID; and

3. Where are you with your betting strategy?  State-by-state betting legalization and mobile betting are likely now to accelerate as states need new revenue sources and fewer people will be going to casinos for the time being.

Phase Two: Re-opening. 

 Maybe you’re already open, maybe the time is coming soon.  In-venue issues are vexing and both league and local governmental requirements are subject to change.  Have you done the exercise to determine your capacity with 6-foot separation (e.g., killing every other row, and 1-2 of every 3 seats in occupied rows)?  How you can maintain distance in concourses?  One-way hallways or lane dividers?  Your requirements for fans to wear face masks or bandanas (a new licensing and/or sponsorship opportunity?!).  New security personnel or procedures?  Arena surface cleaning measures?  Are there new “doors” procedures you will need to implement, such as temperature checks at security screening locations, fan entrance and egress schedules, additional social spacing for fans waiting in entrance or concession lines, changes in concession and usher hygiene operations?

If – or once – you’re back, how can fans otherwise access your property (Linear TV, Streaming Video & Audio, Highlights, Social Media)?  Expect more changes in fan expectation here.  A unique COVID challenge is creating community around your team/sport if people can’t attend live? (we suggest tech to make “studio” sports more entertaining, improving your app, adding “Zoom Watch Parties”).  Can social distance be achieved in a TV Truck?  Another challenging issue is generating attention, audience, advertising, traffic, and sales when all othersports also come back at once … the scenario we expect to see by late summer.

Phase Three: Re-build.  

The “new normal” is hard to imagine at the moment.  Still, there are new processes that everyone is using now that you can implement going forward, such as (1) more work from home for employees and customers, (2) video conferencing for League and team events; and (3) use of newer technologies such as AI-tech for video highlights, live remote production, REMI and “Truck in the Cloud,” enhanced live viewing applications to both improve quality and lower costs, voice applications for “Hands-Free” experiences (“A new reality powered by AI,” SBJ, 4/13/2020).

Mostly though, we are encouraging you to think aggressively and creatively.  Are there businesses you should consider exiting (e.g., retail, restaurants) or transitioning to online-only (box office, elimination of paper tickets)?  Going forward, should your league consider a more unbalanced schedule and/or MLB-style (multi-games with a single opponent) home stands that cut down on travel and better protect player health?  Game presentation adjustments to align with the new environment.  And, of course, new sponsorship categories?  The “Heat Check” seems too obvious to us!  Official cleaning materials, gloves, N-95 masks, and disinfectants.  

We don’t know how much longer the current fan-less sports hiatus will last or how severe the results will be long-term.  Our training is to expect the difficult and prepare accordingly.  We do believe our outcomes will be better if we can take advantage of this summer to plan, reorganize and prepare to emerge energetically.  Sports fans, and all citizens need a return to a sense of normalcy which sports will provide again.  We hope soon.

Ed Desser is President of Desser Media (www.desser.tv), a sports media consultancy.  He was the senior media executive at the NBA for 23 years.  John Kosner is President of Kosner Media (www.kosnermedia.com), a digital and media consultancy and an investor and advisor in sports tech startups.  He was the senior digital executive at ESPN for 20 years.  Together they ran broadcasting for the NBA in the 80’s and 90’s.

John Kosner Appeared in Frog Design Panel on Streaming Media June 24 with Matthew Ball, Veronica Belmont & Tom Richardson

Original Article: Frog Streaming Experience, June 24th, 2020

The Attention Economy is about more than just the streaming wars—it's everything that's currently fighting for the attention of the consumer, including news, podcasts, social media, literature, gaming, and more. The battle for consumer awareness is at an all-time high, bringing with it a golden age of entertainment and the potential for wide-scale tech fatigue.

So how does a platform stand out and successfully capture a piece of the “market share” that exists in consumers’ minds? By differentiating based on experience, rather than price and/or content alone.

What Was Explored:

•  The Attention Economy and how to effectively break through the noise
•  The current state of D2C streaming, including impacts from the COVID-19 crisis
•  Why a human-centered experience is the only way to stand apart

John Kosner Interviews Villanova Men’s Basketball Head Coach Jay Wright

Original Article: Circles: Supporting Leaders, by Betaworks, June 17th, 2020

Video of John Kosner’s interview with Villanova Head Basketball Coach Jay Wright for Betaworks "Circles.”

Is A Superstar Exodus From Traditional Media Coming?

Original Article: John Wall Street, by Howie Long-Short, June 9th, 2020

The New York Post recently reported that Jason Whitlock is “believed to be looking into starting his own direct-to-consumer business.” Unable to come to terms on an extension with Fox Sports, the former Kansas City Star columnist is said to be considering the possibility of “sidestepping traditional media” in favor of trying his hand as a standalone media outlet. It remains to be seen if Whitlock ultimately ends up launching his own endeavor (he told Front Office Sports that he had conversations with Jimmy Pitaro about rejoining ESPN prior to the pandemic), but with the tools needed to be successful widely available (think: email distribution, social media platforms, video and podcast capabilities), the roadmap set (see: Bill Simmons, Joe Rogan) and Coronavirus bound to negatively impact talent budgets across the industry it begs to wonder if other high-profile sports media personalities will look to launch their own platforms at the expiration of their current deals. 

Our Take: John Kosner (Kosner Media) foresees a superstar exodus on the horizon “in part because top talent will have no choice but to examine what they could do [in a D2C capacity] moving forward.” The former ESPN EVP of digital/print media explained that as the established players’ own businesses continue to shrink (think: post-COVID economy in the short-term, cord-cutting in the long-term), their budgets for talent are going to decrease accordingly. When high-paid talent comes up on the end of their contracts, they'll likely have to decide between taking a salary reduction or launching their own digital outlet (or both). 

““The Sports Illustrated of the future might be a collective of the most influential voices.””

— John Kosner

Transformational talent (the D2C model only works for those on the A-List) no longer needs to work for an established media company with readily available D2C channels enabling them to both push out content and build a following. In fact, a prominent C-Level executive at one sports network suggested that remaining employed with a legacy player could actually hold capable individuals back from achieving a major financial payday. He cited Bill Simmons, who was reportedly earning ‘just’ $3 million/year at ESPN before leaving for HBO in 2015, as an example of a personality who brought significantly more value to his/her employer than he/she was being compensated for. The Ringer founder managed to parlay his brand and podcast empire into a $196 million payday back in February (Spotify bought the company).

If the D2C movement gathers steam Kosner suggested it could result in the creation of a new content bundle. “The Sports Illustrated of the future might be a collective of the most influential voices - each with their own digital subscription service - who could make more money packaged together then they could if they were each a standalone.”  Customers would have the ability to personalize their individual package with their choice of different "experts".

Simmons, Dave Portnoy and Joe Rogan have all managed to experience tremendous success in the emerging D2C space, but that doesn't mean what they've done can be easily replicated. As Kosner reminds, “those men are personalities and there aren’t a lot of other examples of individuals who have built valuable media companies within the sports world." That's because aside from being hard work, it’s difficult to monetize digital media with the likes of Facebook and Google dominating ad budgets.

Subscription is the only viable business model for most in the digital space (few have the audience size needed to monetize existing platforms the way Rogan has), so a new media co. will likely need to generate content people would be willing pay for if it's going to be successful. That's easier said than done. Kosner said to build a paid subscriber base the outlet needs "to be in the business of telling the audience something they don’t already know (i.e. consumers are not paying for hot takes), be able to do it consistently and deliver the insight on platforms the audience cares about” (see: podcasting).  

It reasons to believe there are media personalities who believe because they’ve managed to accumulate “tremendous follower numbers on platforms like Twitter and Instagram” that they could/would be capable of launching a widely profitable D2C subscription service. But it’s important to remember that none of those social media followers are paying for the content produced and as Kosner said it’s “not trivial to convert people who are used to being served content for free into paid subs; particularly when some - or all - of the personality’s best contributions are available for free elsewhere” (like on Twitter and IG).

If top-end talent ends up deciding to take salary reductions Kosner believes it could come with some additional freedoms (as opposed to the exclusive terms the legacy players currently enjoy). The tech and media investor said he“could see a scenario where the media personality remains with a traditional outlet to do television at a reduced salary (as that is where much of the advertising value lies), but they’re allowed to take their digital presence elsewhere” (and monetize to the best of their ability). The sports media exec we spoke to agreed and mentioned Pat McAfee and Clay Travis as examples of individuals already pursuing that path. “[Those guys] are selling their services almost as if they were individual studios.”

ABC, ESPN Could ‘MegaCast’ Raiders Vs. Saints in Las Vegas

Original Article: Front Office Sports, by Michael McCarthy, June 3rd, 2020

Circle “Monday Night Football’s” Week 2 telecast during the NFL’s upcoming 2020 season. Not only will it be the Las Vegas Raiders’ first home date, but the September 21 game will also mark ABC’s first regular-season NFL telecast in 15 years.

On the 50th anniversary of “Monday Night Football,” Walt Disney Co. sister networks ABC and ESPN will both televise the Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints.

Broadcast network ABC could televise a straightforward simulcast of ESPN’s telecast. However, ESPN may “MegaCast” that evening’s “Monday Night Football” game the way it offers more than a dozen alternate watching options for the CFP National Championship Game, said sources.

That means ABC and ESPN could employ different teams of announcers, different camera angles, or different coverage approaches, for the same NFL game.

ESPN’s telecast, for example, would feature the regular announcing crew that calls every game. ABC’s coverage, on the other hand, might offer viewers the opportunity to hear the home team’s local radio announcers call the game. In this case, it would be Brent Musburger, the play-by-play voice of the Raiders. 

Or ABC could offer viewers the ability to watch the game from different angles, such as the popular SkyCam view above and behind the action on the field.

Having a single media partner offer alternate game telecasts on sister networks would mark a radically new approach for the NFL. 

For decades, ESPN, CBS, NBC, Fox and NFL Network offered one announce team and one telecast per game, giving viewers no other choice if they wanted to watch the game.

One of the few exceptions is during ESPN’s annual season-opening “Monday Night Football” doubleheader, which requires two broadcast crews. This season, ESPN will again employ different announce teams on Sep. 14, which will feature the Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants and Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos.

Besides the CFP National Championship, Disney has been MegaCasting the NFL Draft for several years, noted former ESPN executive John Kosner.

ESPN offers the traditional X’s and O’s version of the Draft with guru Mel Kiper and Trey Wingo.  ABC, on the other hand, takes a more college football-centric approach with Kirk Herbstreit and the “College GameDay” crew.  Kosner called using that same approach for live games as a “differentiating opportunity for ESPN.”

“Even if there’s a ‘one size fits all’ game call that serves the majority of viewers, an event of the magnitude of ‘Monday Night Football’ lends itself to a broader audience approach,” he said.

Gus Ramsey, the former ESPN producer turned program director at the Dan Patrick School of Broadcasting, thinks plenty of viewers would watch an alternate call by Musburger. Or other different studio shows on the Las Vegas Strip and inviting entertainers to stop by to turn the game into more of a spectacle. Or even have its fantasy sports expert Matthew Berry host a fantasy football-focused telecast.

“Let’s start with the premise, and it’s a fair one, that not everybody is necessarily in love with the broadcast team – regardless of who it is or who it might be. So maybe on one channel, you get the home radio team. On the other, you get the visiting radio team. Then you simulcast them along with the game,” said Ramsey. 

READ MORE: Why ESPN Bets The House On College Football ‘MegaCast.’

The NFL has made some inroads into multiple telecasts of the same game. 

The league already tri-casts “Thursday Night Football” on broadcast TV on Fox, cable TV on NFL Network, and digital on Amazon Prime Video and Twitch. Amazon’s streaming coverage does not feature Fox/NFL Network’s “Thursday Night Football” announce team of Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, and Erin Andrews. 

Instead, Amazon hired Hannah Storm and Andrea Kremer to deliver an optional feed to Fox’s coverage to more than 200 countries in 2018. They’re the only female crew to call live NFL games. 

In 2017, the NFL signed a one-year streaming deal with Amazon, which owns Twitch, worth $50 million. Amazon and the NFL signed a two-year extension the next year at a rate of $65 million per season. This spring, the two sides signed a three-year extension worth over $200 million. 

Meanwhile, both ESPN and Fox Sports offer separate, Spanish-language versions of “Monday Night Football” and “Thursday Night Football” on ESPN Deportes and Fox Deportes.

Before the kickoff of the 2019 season, Brian Rolapp, the NFL’s executive vice president of media, said the league was “certainly open” to more alternate video/audio/digital feeds as  more viewers migrate from linear to digital platforms. 

“You see what we’re doing on ‘Thursday Night Football.’ We’re not only distributing 11 of those games on Amazon Prime but they’re also on Twitch (a platform for gamers),” said Rolapp.

On Monday, NFL spokesman Alex Reithmiller said the league’s stance hadn’t changed. 

The NFL will continue to “experiment,” mostly around “Thursday Night Football” which the league uses as a laboratory for new programming ideas, according to Riethmiller.  

MegaCasting “Monday Night Football” could help ESPN down the road too. 

ESPN’s $2 billion a year “Monday Night Football” contract expires after the 2021 season. MegaCasting could give Disney more ammo  as it enters contract negotiations.

As a broadcast network, ABC reaches more homes and viewers than a cable network like ESPN. Bringing the bigger ABC into the mix would help ESPN reach cord-cutters and cord-shavers who have dropped their cable TV packages.

There’s also been speculation Disney wants to shift “Monday Night Football” to ABC from ESPN. Or acquire a second NFL TV package for ABC, which will feature better games and flexible scheduling. 

Getting viewers comfortable watching live NFL game coverage on ABC again is a strategic way to do it. ABC televised the first “Monday Night Football” game between Joe Namath’s New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns on Sep. 21, 1970.

As MegaCasting becomes more popular, look for other media and digital companies to experiment with alternate video/audio feeds and more interactive elements, predicted Kosner.

“I expect NFL broadcasters will move aggressively in this direction.”

— John Kosner

“Amazon has pioneered two women in a booth for ‘Thursday Night Football.’ The NFL attracts a significant Hispanic audience; Twitch has featured the popular streamer Ninja around Detroit Lions games,” Kosner said. “There are many, many ways to go. I expect NFL broadcasters will move aggressively in this direction.”

READ MORE: NFL Embracing MultiCast Approach To Live Game Coverage

After reassigning Booger McFarland and Joe Tessitore to new duties, ESPN still hasn’t announced its “Monday Night Football” broadcast crew for 2020. So the decision on whether or not to MegaCast Raiders-Saints is still a ways off. 

An ESPN spokesman indicated specific broadcast plans for Raiders-Saints will be announced closer to the start of the NFL season. ESPN declined to comment on NFL rights negotiations.

The NFL’s average viewership grew 5% during the 2019 season to 16.5 million average viewers per game. The league generated 47 of the top 50 most-watched shows on TV. ESPN scored its most-watched NFL season since 2015 averaging 12.6 million viewers, up 8% over the year before.

Adam Grossman, CEO of Block Six Analytics interviewed John Kosner on Northwestern University’s “Revenue Above Replacement” podcast

Original Article: Block Six Analytics, by Revenue Above Replacement, May 21st, 2020

Northwestern's Master of Arts in Sports Administration (MSA) program is host of the Revenue Above Replacement (RAR) podcast. MSA faculty members Adam Grossman and Brice Clinton interview sports industry leaders like John on a weekly basis on a wide range of topics including business, economics, marketing, branding, media, sponsorship, events, and public policy.

The podcast will also be directly integrated into the MSA curriculum with students taking MSA 401-0: Sports Research Methods and Quantitative Analysis creating a production plan that includes an episode’s guest, questions, audience and timing as part of a group assignment for the course.

@ UCLA Anderson: What's Next in Sports Post COVID-19

Content Provided by UCLA Anderson School of Management, May 20, 2020.

John Kosner on "What's Next in Sports post COVID-19" for UCLA Anderson Class on "COVID Impact on Sports and Entertainment.”

Follow the Money: Unpacking Sports Media from the Coronavirus Shutdown

Original Article: Sports Business Journal, by John Kosner and Ed Desser, May 18th 2020

Everyone is talking about how and when sports will return. Few are addressing the pain to come: the great adjustment and renegotiation chain. For now, force majeure language in nearly all agreements forestalls this process. These provisions prevent either party from being in breach of the agreement...

Sports Leagues are Preparing for an Era Without Fans

Original Article: Axios Sports, by Kendall Baker, May 13, 2020

At the turn of the century, futurist Watts Wacker predicted that sports stadiums of the future would essentially be sound stages optimized for TV, rather than coliseum-like structures built to seat thousands of fans.

Why it matters: Prior to the coronavirus, things were already moving in this direction, with teams building smaller, more intimate venues in response to declining attendance and changing viewing habits.

• And now, as we transition from the No Sports Era to the No Fans Era, Wacker's prophecy has become reality — albeit under circumstances he could never have anticipated.

The state of play: Our sports-less odyssey is nearing its end, but fans won't be packing stadiums any time soon, meaning a return to normalcy is still months away.

• According to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll of more than 1,000 Americans, only 24% of respondents said they would be either very likely or somewhat likely to attend a sporting event right now if government restrictions were lifted. 58% said they would be "not at all likely."

• When asked what condition would make them feel comfortable attending a game, respondents overwhelmingly answered "the development of a COVID-19 vaccine," which isn't likely until 2021 at the earliest. And 27% said even a vaccine wouldn't do the trick.

The big picture: For athletes and coaches, empty stadiums will create a surreal environment that lacks the energy and noise that fans provide.

"There's a reason why people say fans play such an integral role in the process of the game. When you don't have fans and that atmosphere, it becomes flat. And it becomes a lot of forced energy and a lot of moments you are trying to create instead of it creating it for you."

— Diamondbacks pitcher Luke Weaver, via USA Today

As for the broadcasts, fanless games will likely accelerate changes already in development, sports media consultant and former ESPN executive John Kosner tells me. And some of those changes could be permanent.

• "We will see the use of new technologies come to the fore, with things like augmented reality used to cover empty seats and actual crowd noise pumped in from fans watching remotely," says Kosner. "All to bring sight, sound and emotion to the otherwise drab proceedings."

• "You already see elements of fan interactivity on Twitch and in gaming — now we could see that take hold on traditional sports telecasts. More trivia, social media integrations, the option to choose the next guest."

• "What makes me optimistic is that we'll come up with some good ideas here that will be part of the 'new normal' once we get to the other side, and that we'll come out of this dark period with a greater appreciation for how important fans are."

Go deeper: How sports media is handling the coronavirus outage

“Staying Relevant in a Time of Uncertainty” with John Kosner and Darren Rovell

Original Article: Sport Hiatus, by VC Sports and Sport Hiatus, May 13th, 2020

Take a look at Office Hours #3, a Zoom discussion between John Kosner and Darren Rovell.

Careers in 20/20

Original Article: For What It’s Worth, by Fred Bucher, Apri 29th, 2020

For more than 25 years John Kosner has been at the forefront of the massive transformation in the ways we watch, engage and interact with sports on every screen.  All sports fans have been impacted by his work. John was the EVP/General Manager for ESPN Digital and Print Media for many years in addition to holding leadership positions at the NBA, CBS Sports and Sports Illustrated.  He’s a pioneer in our industry and today he offers his invaluable insights on Careers in 20/20.  Check it out and stay safe.

"Impacts of the Sport Hiatus on Sports Business" with John Kosner and Rich Greenfield

Original Article: Sport Hiatus, by VC Sports and Sport Hiatus, April 15th, 2020

Take a look at the latest Office Hours, a Zoom discussion between John Kosner and Rich Greenfield.

A New Reality Powered by AI

Original Article: Sports Business Journal, by Eric Prisbell, April 13th 2020

The challenges ahead for the sports industry will expedite the growth and impact of artificial intelligence, the result of technology meeting demand.

n the morning of Jan. 8, Mark Cuban likened the global pursuit of unlocking artificial intelligence’s full potential to the 20th century space race, enlightening a packed ballroom of entrepreneurs and media and industry leaders at CES 2020 in Las Vegas with an AI endorsement as clear as it was declarative.

The Dallas Mavericks owner said that businesses that don’t embrace AI will soon become dinosaurs. AI will separate the haves from have-nots who “might as well rip out all the computers in your office and throw away your phones,” he said. And, Cuban added, if you don’t use AI now, “you’re the equivalent of somebody in 1999 saying, ‘Yeah, I’m sure this internet thing will be OK, but I don’t give a shit.’”

Three months later, Cuban’s words resonate with even more urgency. The world has been turned upside down amid the COVID-19 pandemic, thrust into a historic health and economic crisis that promises to dramatically alter all aspects of life for the foreseeable future. While the priority is saving lives and curtailing the virus’s spread, sport is a multibillion-dollar, multifaceted industry that will rely heavily on AI-powered solutions as it confronts a plethora of broad challenges in the uncertain months ahead.

“Before coronavirus, artificial intelligence and technologies such as computer vision and machine learning have been changing sports,” said John Kosner, the former longtime ESPN Digital executive who invests in and advises a portfolio of tech startups. “After coronavirus, they will transform them. It is all going to be so integrated into the sports experience, an indispensable part of the mix.”

Kosner is among those who believe that the sports world will be pressed to create “premium versions of themselves,” including high-end content like advanced statistics, customized highlights and immersive experiences (VR/AR), to begin to try to make up for lost gate revenue. These technologies will be used to create innovations to attract and engage fans.  

Industry leaders will seek to create more self-serve experiences for those either unable to return to sporting venues and health clubs because of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines, or unwilling to because of the psychological impact of what they are enduring. Then there are unknown elements, such as how much discretionary income fans may have once live sporting events return, that will need to be factored into decisions by leagues, teams and sports businesses. 

The sports world’s future is foggy. But AI’s potential in sports is “pretty close to endless,” said Andrew Robinson, the CTO for Dallas-based Event Dynamic, which uses AI to optimize ticket prices for teams. “The real power that AI is able to bring to bear is the ability to analyze data so much faster than what a human could do and in a retrainable way that can constantly learn, evolve and get better.”

Technologies such as machine learning, computer vision and deep learning, among others, all fall under the umbrella of AI, which remains in the early stages of benefiting the sports ecosystem even as more organizations have hired data scientists, developers and others in business intelligence roles. The sports business’s recovery from the global pandemic will accelerate AI’s impact — and perhaps vice versa as well — the result of an emerging technology meeting opportunity and demand. And according to those who invest in, develop and lead AI-powered businesses, the outcome is expected to be revolutionary. 

“It’s going to have significant impact,” said Keith Bank, a Chicago-area veteran of the venture capital industry and CEO and founder of the firm KB Partners. “A lot of AI things that have originally been used maybe by the elite athletes and organizations, teams and leagues are going to filter down to the everyday person. There’s going to be a whole new wave of companies that take what has happened over the last month and figure out ways to hopefully capitalize. Where people work is going to change. Where people view sports is going to change. The way people view sports is going to change. There’s going to be a sea change. There’s going to be some long-lasting and permanent innovations that come from this.”

HOW CONTENT IS MADE

If live sporting events return before fans are allowed in venues, an emphasis will be placed on enhancing the broadcast. Kosner envisions the potential of live video shots of fans and influencers watching the game at home being interspersed into the live game broadcast to liven up what otherwise would be a game devoid of crowd noise.

Consider the possibilities unlocked by a company like Kiswe, which essentially is a television truck and control room in the cloud. It has enabled the NBA to personalize international broadcasts with live games in local languages. It also has worked with NBA TV (a joint venture between Turner and the NBA) to produce “FrontCourt,” offering a marquee game of the night with alternative talent that includes athletes, coaches and celebrities. With the need now for remote productions, they are helping NBA TV to produce “GameTime,” “Hardwood Classics” and more for digital and linear television.

“While the traditional model is that the truck makes the broadcast for the audience,” Kosner said, “we are moving to a model where the audience makes content for the game.”

Jeff Volk, Deltatre’s head of business and revenue, Americas, said AI will help “put the power in the viewer’s hands.”

“We are moving to a model where the audience makes content for the game.”

— John Kosner

“We know sports fans want to be able to shape a viewing experience that meets their tastes and needs,” Volk said. “What is exciting about the world of sports is that fans consume our programming predominantly live, and they always want more: more data, more interactivity, more customization. The data have shown that fans are hungry for this type of innovation, and we know they’ll pay more for personalization options.  In fact, 72% of sports fans view personalization as ‘important’ and 71% of sports fans crave ‘deeper immersion’ when watching live games.”

StreamLayer allows video stream viewers to interact with the content, from social media to merchandise to in-game wagering.

Along those lines, the Chicago-based company StreamLayer, founded in mid-2018, has developed video overlay technology that sits on top of any video stream. By clicking on the icon in the lower right-hand corner — whatever network logo that icon may be — the user calls up a menu displaying ways to interact with that video while still watching that event. It’s a transparent layer that allows a viewer to see social media feeds and chat with friends, buy merchandise or tickets, or even gamble on live action.

“It’s a way to make available to viewers all the interactive components an especially younger generation wants,” said Bank, whose KB Partners is the lead and largest investor in StreamLayer. “They can’t sit through a three-hour baseball game. They want to be doing other things. We believe it’s the wave of the future. It provides a much more engaging consumer experience. It provides all kinds of new revenue channels for rights holders. There’s also a gamification piece to it.”

The ability to personalize content is also one element of MLB’s announcement last month that Google Cloud is now its official cloud and cloud data and analytics partner. That will lead to reinventing Statcast, the automated tool for analyzing player movements and abilities. Chris Marinak, MLB’s executive vice president for strategy, technology and innovation, has been bullish on the potential of computer vision to revolutionize the viewing experience for fans. In a lengthy interview before the pandemic shut down sports, he painted a picture of cameras set up throughout the ballpark tracking everything, not just where the ball went.

“But also how fast did someone go, and not just how fast did they move their body but how fast did they move their foot, their arm, their arm angle, their bat, their glove,” Marinak said. “You’re going to have an infinite level of data and information around what’s happening on the field. That’s going to revolutionize how fans consume sports. It’s going to be who turned the quickest double play and why, who has the best footwork at second base. Those types of things will be data points that you’ll be able to get immediate access to.”

ANSWERS ARE IN THE DATA

Businesses use AI to train a machine to do a task that was previously done by humans. For the Tel Aviv-based WSC Sports, that includes revolutionizing the creation and distribution of video highlights. It eschews the manual process by using AI to personalize content for fans and customize it to geographic regions. Achieving this in real time, the technology uses audio and visual cues to pinpoint key moments in a game to curate highlights. 

The NBA has been using this technology since 2014. Bob Carney, the league’s senior vice president of social and digital strategy, calls it a “game-changer” for the NBA, adding that it takes only a few minutes now to create more than 1,000 highlight packages.

What’s next for WSC Sports is more personalized highlight packages. Leagues may begin to roll out highlight packages as licensed products tailored to fans’ individual preferences. Does a fan prefer a 70-second highlight clip or a two-minute clip? Does she want to see all the behind-the-back passes that led to baskets on a particular night of games? That could be possible as well.

Kosner has been advising WSC Sports to understand the value of its metadata, not merely what it produces. “Don’t just think about all these projects and things you’re enabling, but what is it that you know?” he said. “What’s the perfect duration for a condensed game? Does it vary by sport, by country? Insights like these are made possible by these technologies and are priceless. Companies collecting the data are the ones who are going to understand it.”

One company that understands the increasing value of its data is Boston-based Whoop, a favorite of PGA Tour players — including Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas — that tracks key measurements including heart rate variability, resting heart rate and sleep staging to help members of its service optimize their performance and overall well-being. Whoop’s memberships range from $30 a month for a six-month commitment to $18 for 18 months, and hardware is included in the price. 

Most importantly in these unprecedented times, Whoop announced on April 1 that data collected via its wrist-worn Strap 3.0 from hundreds of self-identified COVID-19 patients who are Whoop members would be part of a study by CQUniversity in Australia, in collaboration with the Cleveland Clinic.

Data collected by Whoop’s wearable technology (below), used by golfer Rory McIlroy, will be used in a study of COVID-19 in Australia and the U.S. The company has found that measuing respiratory rate can be an early signal of the disease’s symptoms.

Since early March, members have been able to toggle on COVID-19 as an option to indicate they have the virus. When members make note of that, they are given the option to fill out a survey about their symptoms. Each day they have COVID-19 toggled on (indicating they still feel symptoms), they receive a shorter check-in survey in the app to provide any updates on their condition. 

After seeing hundreds of people respond in the first 24 hours — and many more since — the company asked permission to use the data for research purposes. In the individuals’ data examined, the company has seen that an elevated respiratory rate — effectively the number of breaths per minute — could be a specific precursor to COVID-19 symptoms. 

Earlier this year, Whoop, founded in 2012, became the first wrist-worn wearable device to validate the accuracy of its respiratory rate during sleep in a third-party study conducted by the University of Arizona and published in the Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine.  

“Our goal at Whoop is to provide as much thought leadership and research as we can around COVID-19,” said Will Ahmed, the company’s founder and CEO. “It’s all hands on deck across humanity to fight this virus and beat it. Anything that can be a potential indicator should be on the table. We believe respiratory rate may be an early indicator, and that may be something organizations can use to help predict this thing in light of the fact that we [the United States] are short on tests and we are trying to figure this thing out as fast as possible.

PERFORMANCE ASSISTANCE

If there is a premium on more and better personal data related to health and performance, the best wearables and performance-related technologies will be in high demand.

Consider ShotTracker, which uses sensors on basketballs to provide valuable shooting data in real time. The data informs assistant coaches via iPads during games and, in turn, can enhance television broadcasts with data related to shooting tendencies and the motion of players. As sports betting moves toward legalization in more states, the data could also be used in venues among fans to inform microbets during games because there is sub-second latency. 

During the 2019-20 season, ShotTracker enjoyed a partnership with the Mountain West Conference, enabling it to be used in all men’s and women’s basketball conference games, where statistics were used both during games by coaches as a teaching tool and during broadcasts to inform viewers. 

Dan Butterly, the MWC’s senior associate commissioner, called the technology an “unbelievably great product if you want to improve in basketball, not just shooting. With the number of statistics available, our coaches have said that players look at it even more than they do because [the players] want to improve.”

ShotTracker also had partnerships with several other marquee men’s basketball teams this past season, including No. 1-ranked Kansas, No. 5 Baylor, Big Ten co-champion Wisconsin and BYU, which led the nation in three-point shooting. Those programs used the system in practice, but not games because not every team in the respective leagues had a partnership. 

The emerging smart apparel industry could be the post-pandemic answer for those reluctant to return to health clubs, personal trainers and even physical therapists. Asensei, founded in 2014, won an award for most innovative fitness company at the Fitness & Active Brands Summit in Los Angeles last December because of its unique technology. Its smart apparel is infused with a network of sensors for full-body motion capture combined with a connected coaching app that turns biomechanic data into real-time coaching insights. The technologies give Asensei sport-specific understanding of posture and movement by embedding motion capture capabilities directly into sports apparel, allowing Asensei to guide, monitor and correct biomechanics. 

Asensei CEO Steven Webster said that even prior to the multitude of stay-at-home orders nationwide, millions of people were already watching fitness content on screens and devices. But his technology helps ensure people work out correctly and safely.

“Without what Asensei calls Connected Coaching, connected fitness is still just a spectator sport,” Webster said. “It’s basically the same thing that Jane Fonda introduced to the world in 1982. Consumers want to be guided through workout programs, while also being corrected on their technique and form. And overnight, not only has the need become more acute, it has become a need shared by the entire at-home sport and fitness market, not just a percentage share of it.”

HOW WILL FANS RETURN?

In such uncertain times, it will be critical for teams and leagues to have strong and efficient lines of communication with their fans, which is where chatbots and virtual assistants come in. Satisfi Labs, the AI-powered knowledge management platform, has more than 200 clients in sports, entertainment and tourism, including more than 100 in professional and college sports. In mid-March, it trained its chatbots to understand and provide answers to countless questions by fans regarding COVID-19 and topics related to it, such as ticket refunds.

ShotTracker uses sensors on basketballs to relay information to coaches and broadcast partners about players’ shooting tendencies and motion.

That technology will be increasingly critical for teams as fans seek information related to when fans will be permitted back into venues, what medical protocols may be in place and any changes that will be enacted regarding social distancing, concessions or ticketing policies. Don White, the CEO of Satisfi Labs, said an increasing number of people realize that the feedback teams traditionally have received from surveys represents only a fraction of what they could get if they could aggregate “what is already flying through their walls every game.”

“I think that is the future,” White said in an interview just before the pandemic grew. “If I were going back to school I’d be focusing heavily on data science, and I believe the sports industry is the perfect place. Data is your life. Data will never go away. There’s never going to be less of it. That’s an industry you can bet on.”

One company especially eager for games to return and to return with fans in venues is Event Dynamic. The company, which launched last year, is the first in the ticketing industry to successfully use its patent-pending AI technology to optimize ticket prices for live events across professional and college sports in pursuit of maximizing revenue and increasing attendance. The company incorporates almost countless factors — winning/losing streaks, weather, the opponent, bobblehead nights, etc. — to ensure that tickets are priced so that they have the best chance of selling. 

When games return, the challenge will be also factoring in the potential short-term hesitance of families to return to mass gatherings and the possibility of diminished discretionary income, which could vary by market. Robinson, the company’s CTO, said their algorithm will react on its own to the change in demand. And right now, no one can quantify that level of demand.

“We know there is a lot of uncertainty but we also know that if you go three or four months down our road map, our technology is that much more powerful, and we’re still building,” said Robinson, later adding, “We already believe that our algorithms will adapt and adjust faster than everyone else’s anyway. Our product was built to react to changes in demand. ... I think the difference between the winners and losers coming out of this is, one, you’ve got to survive [as a business]. Two, after you get to the other side, what do you look like?” 

Classic Game Replays on Tap As Networks Dig Deep Into Sport Archives

Original Article: Front Office Sports, by Michael McCarthy, March 18, 2020

Sports-starved TV viewers have been screaming for networks to replay classic games to fill the void left by the cancellation of virtually all live sports. 

Giving those fans their wish, MLB Network and NHL Network are rolling out revamped programming schedules that will heavily feature “All-Time” baseball games and classic Stanley Cup Finals, sources said.

In a sports world decimated by the coronavirus pandemic, these classic telecasts will feature famous players of the past, including MLB’s Ken Griffey Jr. and George Brett and the NHL’s Wayne Gretzky, while also reminding viewers of players they may have forgotten, such as eccentric Tigers pitcher Mark “The Bird” Fidrych.

For the most part, sports leagues control the replay rights to classic games and archived content, not national TV partners like ESPN or regional sports networks.

That’s providing a strategic opening for league-owned channels like MLB Network and NHL Network to replay classic games, some more than 40 years old.

Going back to the future with classic games from the archives is a smart strategy, said William Mao, vice president of Octagon’s global media rights consulting division. Moving forward amid the lack of live sports, archive sports footage will become an increasingly valuable currency, he said.

“If there’s no water, what else do you drink to stay hydrated?” asked Mao. “When there are live games, you’re not going to watch the archival content. But in the absence of it (you will).”

Still, at some point, sports viewers will tire of watching classic games, he added. Then it will be up to networks to be more creative and imaginative on how they present archived content.

For example, Mao points to the way ESPN+’s “Detail” series showed stars like Peyton Manning and the late Kobe Bryant breaking down key plays.

“NBA players are already watching their own highlights on YouTube,” said Mao. “Why don’t we spin that up as a potential area of content – where the rights holders that have the archival rights to key games in their careers can have these guys come in and commentate? That’s a potential area of content development.”

READ MORE: New NFL Wild Card Games Positioned To Be Ad Sales Boon

In more than 80 million homes, ESPN has a bigger footprint than MLB or NHL Networks. But the sports giant has been forced to fill the massive holes in its schedule, mostly with news shows such as “SportsCenter,” studio programs like “Get Up” and replays of its own original “30 for 30” documentaries.  

ESPN has some re-air rights. It’s been showing “encore” presentations of men’s and women’s college basketball games from recent seasons. It has also been anchoring its coverage around Tom Brady’s departure from the Patriots and the rest of NFL free agency news.

Still, replaying classic games is easier said than done for ESPN, according to Burke Magnus, executive vice president of programming acquisitions and scheduling.

“Re-airing full-game presentations is not a right that we or other media companies typically have at our disposal at all times. Each one of these circumstances requires individual conversations with the specific league or property to determine what’s possible,” said Magnus in an interview posted to the “ESPN Front Row” PR site.

“Since we’ve heard from fans that would love to relive full-game presentations, particularly at this moment in time, we are exploring that possibility for events and content that we don’t have re-air rights already,” he said.

John Kosner, the former ESPN executive turned founder of Kosner Media, expects his former company to get creative in the coming days.

“I am keenly interested to see where they go next – classic games integrating current and former NBA stars, who will have time on their hands, the new (high school) stars profiled on Overtime, ’30 for 30’ marathons, new formats like video podcasts with some of their great emerging talent, experimentation with gaming content… It’s an opportunity to experiment and develop a hit show or talent,” Kosner said.

Some RSN’s like Fox Sports Florida, have announced plans to replay NHL and NBA games. But these channels don’t have nearly the archives or freedom of league-owned operations like MLB Network, NHL Network, NFL Network or NBA TV.

MLB Network, for example, plans to roll out a series of “themed” nights around classic baseball games this week, sources said.

On March 17,  it will show a replay of the famous “Pine Tar” game between the Yankees and Royals on July 24, 1983.

On March 18, the 24/7 baseball network will show a day’s worth of classic baseball games, such as the Pine Tar Game and the memorable Phillies at Cubs game from May 17, 1979, where the teams combined to score 45 runs.

On March 20, MLB Network will replay Fidrych’s complete game over the Yankees from 1976, followed by the replay of Ken Griffey Jr. and the Mariners’ Game 5 win over the Yankees in the 1995 American League Division Series from October 8, 1995.

For its part, NHL Network will dive deep into the archives for “Franchise Classics” and the great Stanley Cup Finals game under the banner, “Raising The Cup.”

Starting March 18, NHL Network will go deep with classic Stanley Cup Finals games. It will replay Game 6 of the 1978 Stanley Cup Final between the Canadiens at Bruins followed by Game 5 of the 1979 Stanley Cup Final between the Rangers and Canadiens.

READ MORE: Suspended Seasons Leave Networks Scrambling To Fill Programming Hours

It will follow that up with Game Six of the 1980 Stanley Cup Final between the Islanders and Flyers, followed by the replay of Game 6 of the ’78 Canadiens-Bruins Final.

In the coming days, it also has plans to show games from the 1983 Stanley Cup Final between Gretzky’s Oilers and Islanders, the 1981 Final between North Stars and Islanders, and the 1985 Stanley Cup Final between the Flyers and Oilers. It will also feature prior Winter Classic games as well.

Suspended Seasons Leave Networks Scrambling To Fill Programming Hours

Original Article: Front Office Sports, by Michael McCarthy, March 12, 2020

Alarm. Confusion. Disbelief. Despair.

Those were the feelings of TV sports executives Thursday as they scrambled to fill the gaping holes in their programming schedules wrought by the coronavirus on Thursday.

During one unprecedented day, the NBA, NHL, and MLS suspended their regular seasons while Major League Baseball canceled spring training games and pushed Opening Day back by two weeks. Not to mention March Madness and college sports essentially shutting down for the spring.

Those decisions didn’t just impact leagues, teams, players, and fans. They upended the best-laid plans of TV networks such as ESPN, TNT, TBS, CBS, Fox and NBC that collectively pay sports leagues billions to air thousands of hours of live sports coverage.

The situation also raises the question of what exactly do sports TV networks show their viewers when there are little or no live games, matches or tournaments.

The sudden loss of NBA games – just as the league headed toward the post-season – was a blow to Disney’s ESPN and Turner Sports’ TNT.

Disney will have to potentially fill 16 NBA regular-season game windows across its ESPN and ABC networks, as well as up to 44 NBA Playoff game windows, including the NBA Finals on ABC.  

TNT, meanwhile, will have to potentially replace 14 regular-season game windows and up to 40 playoff telecasts, including the hotly anticipated Western Conference Finals.

Publicly, both of the NBA’s national TV partners supported commissioner Adam Silver’s decision to postpone its season. But the two cable networks will be hard-pressed to come up with replacement programming comparable to NBA superstars LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo potentially competing for the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Looking ahead, ESPN’s flagship network plans to air live “SportsCenter” editions, all day and night, while ESPN2 will simulcast a combination of ESPN and ESPNEWS programming. ESPNEWS, meanwhile, will continue to air its usual video simulcasts of radio shows such as “First Take, Your Take With Jason Fritz” and “The Will Cain Show.”

John Kosner, the ex-ESPN executive turned President of Kosner Media, expects Turner and ESPN to take different approaches to the crisis.

Turner is really an entertainment network with some marquee sports properties, he said, while ESPN is more news-oriented.

Kosner predicted Turner will mostly plug the holes with entertainment programming, while ESPN relies on news and studio shows. 

He also expects ESPN to take a “back to the future” approach, replaying the greatest NBA games and other “classic” programming. Or filling holes through marathon showings of its “30 for 30” sports documentary series.  With little or no live sports, look for ESPN Classic to also become a go-to destination for sports diehards.

“I think Turner will go to its high-profile entertainment programming – and just fill the slots with that,” Kosner said. “In the case of ESPN, you have a very sophisticated, well-resourced newsroom. So they’re certainly going to cover what’s going on. I expect they’ll spend ample time talking to players from different sports about how they’re spending their time.”

There’s no downplaying the potential disaster facing sports TV networks with little or no live sports to offer viewers. But such a black swan event could spark some interesting programming experiments on new topics such as sports gaming, said Kosner.

With NBA players having time on their hands, he can also see ESPN integrating current and former NBA stars into coverage of classic NBA Finals and games. Plus,  more coverage of high school athletic stars similar to what you see on youth-oriented networks like Overtime.

“They will have a captive audience of sports fans (like me) who will be tuning in,” Kosner said. “It’s an opportunity to experiment and develop a hit show or talent.”

The potential loss of the NBA Playoffs is just one of the multiple problems facing sports TV networks.

CBS and Turner pay over $1 billion annually for the rights to air the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. But there will be no madness this March. 

CBS, TBS, TNT, and truTV were slated to televise all 67 games from the Division I Men’s basketball championship. TBS was poised to televised the Final Four on Saturday, April 4 and National Championship on April 6. 

The first casualty of the NCAA decision could be CBS’ presentation of “The Selection Show” that was scheduled to air Sunday, March 15 from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. ET.

From March 3 to March 15, ESPN was set to televise no less than 29 men’s, and 24 women’s, college basketball conference championships.

Over the coming weeks, ESPN will also have to replace canceled matches, tournaments and games from its TV partners at MLS and the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP). 

ESPN was supposed to televise 31 regular-season MLS matches this year as well as MLS All-Star Game on July 29. But the network only got to show three matches before the season was suspended. 

Likewise, the network was also supposed to provide “first ball to last ball” coverage of the BNP Paribas Open starting Wednesday, March 11 before the tennis tournament announced it was a no-go.

NBC Sports, meanwhile, will grapple with how to program canceled NHL game windows as well as MotoGP races.  NBC still had more than a dozen regular-season game telecasts planned for its broadcast network and NBCSN before the puck is supposed to drop for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in April.

“We want everyone, everywhere to be safe from the spread of this virus,” said NBC spokesman Greg Hughes.

The best-case scenario is that some of these sporting events will only be postponed for a few weeks or months, not canceled.

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, for example, told Mike Greenberg on ESPN’s “Get Up” morning show Thursday that he could see the NBA postponing the season for 60 days, then returning to play the last 7-10 games of the regular season and finally an NBA Playoffs that reaches into July if not August.

Traditional Sports Look To Gamers To Reshape Viewers’ Experience

Original Article: The Wall Street Journal, by Sarah Needleman, March 6, 2020

One of Alexander MacFall’s favorite pro videogame players was in the middle of live-streaming a practice session when he decided to get in touch with the digital athlete. Using a text-chatting feature baked into the broadcast, the 33-year-old told Jong-Ryeol “Saebyeolbe” Park he was “hyped” to see him compete in an upcoming match.

Moments later, Mr. Park, the captain of a local team that competes at the videogame “Overwatch,” thanked him on camera—so he and anyone else watching could see.

“I freaked out a little bit,” says Mr. MacFall, a graphic designer who lives in Pomona, N.Y. “For him to see my post and actually respond to it was really, really cool.”

Videogame enthusiasts are using technologies such as live-streaming and virtual reality. They’re watching esports competitions while text-chatting with each other and commentators on the same screen, and strapping on VR goggles to socialize in virtual spaces with far-flung friends.

“A more immersive experience around sports is definitely coming”

— John Kosner

Now, traditional sports leagues are paying attention. Executives at tech companies say they are testing a range of gamer-inspired features for sports broadcasts. Some, such as live polls about what viewers think will happen in matches and the ability to toggle across camera angles, could roll out widely over the next several years. Others, like access to front-row stadium seats in VR, are poised to take longer because they depend on factors including faster internet speeds, cheaper hardware and deal-making among teams, leagues and media outlets.

The coming tech capabilities aren’t designed to eliminate live experiences but rather make viewership from afar more engaging, particularly for fans who’ve grown up with the internet and mobile devices.

“Sports is grappling with an audience under 30 that’s radically different than” older fans in terms of what they want out of broadcasts, says John Kosner, a former executive at Walt Disney Co. ’s ESPN. He believes sports broadcasts need to evolve to become more appealing to young fans, or viewership could erode over time. “A more immersive experience around sports is definitely coming,” says Mr. Kosner, now an investor in sports-technology startups.

LiveLike and other upstarts are developing technology that allows fans with smartphones and other devices to text chat beneath live video of sports matches, among other interactive features.

Esports broadcasts are considered a proxy for the future of traditional sports programming by leagues, media companies and others because the broadcasts take place mostly online and can be wildly popular. Last November’s “League of Legends” World Championship Final—the computer game’s equivalent of the Super Bowl—peaked at 44 million concurrent viewers world-wide, according to its creator, Riot Games Inc., a unit of Chinese conglomerate Tencent Holdings Ltd.

Some sports fans might struggle to imagine following a match on a laptop or smartphone while text-chatting with other viewers on the same screen. But such behavior is common among esports fans and is starting to occur among traditional sports viewers, says Nicole Pike, managing director of esports at the ratings provider Nielsen. “It’s a generational thing,” she adds.

Upstarts such as LiveLike Inc. and Genvid Technologies Inc., both of New York, are developing technology that allows fans using smartphones and other devices to text chat with each other beneath live video of sports matches; purchase team emojis to share within those chats; and guess what will happen during the action via real-time polls, among other interactive features.

Tech firms are also working to allow viewers to toggle between camera angles on their screens to see different perspectives of a match, as well as call up stats and highlight videos for athletes of their choosing. Sports-betting capabilities are also on deck.

With chat in particular baked into game streams, sports fans could potentially also engage with commentators, coaches or their favorite athletes during breaks in the action or at other times—much the way Mr. MacFall connected with one of his esports idols through Twitch, Amazon.com Inc.’s live-streaming platform.

Twitch is best known for live broadcasts mostly of expert gamers playing videogames and pro esports competitions, but it also airs some traditional sports matches. The platform recently began allowing users to take on the role of a sportscaster for certain games from the National Football League, National Basketball Association and a handful of others, with permission from those leagues. User-commentators call plays or talk about the action during live broadcasts, and anyone can tune in unless marked private. Going forward, Twitch users might be able to choose from a list of celebrity, pro athlete or other high-profile commentators, says Michael Aragon, senior vice president of content at the company.

The NBA meanwhile is testing the option for viewers of its League Pass live-streaming service to select commentators who can call games from remote locations and in more languages. “We are just at the beginning of this world of alternate commentary,” says Sara Zuckert, the NBA’s senior director of domestic programming and content strategy.

The way gamers socialize in virtual reality is also expected to influence sports viewership. While VR headsets are currently pricey and bulky, future iterations won’t be, says Jason Rubin, vice president of special gaming initiatives at Facebook Inc. The latest version of the company’s Oculus headset is wireless, unlike its predecessor, in addition to being lighter-weight and less expensive at around $400 including two “Touch” controllers.

VR technology is capable today of broadcasting live, real-world entertainment. Last year, Facebook hosted a concert with singer Billie Eilish through its Oculus Quest. Though viewers saw one another as cartoonish avatars, Ms. Eilish appeared live from Madrid thanks to cameras that captured her stage performance in the real world and streamed it in the virtual one.

It will likely take many years, though, for such broadcasts to become widespread in sports, largely because media companies, leagues and other parties are waiting for wider adoption of VR headsets to cut deals, says Miheer Walavalkar, chief executive of LiveLike. The entity that owns the live-streaming rights to a sports game might charge to include the cost of virtual seats as part of a package to access all its content through whatever device a viewer chooses.

“Once the tech reaches a point where it’s really good, it can definitely be an upsell opportunity,” he says.

With VR gear, sports fans will be able to watch matches from home seemingly in front-row seats or private suites. Space is essentially infinite in the virtual world, so potentially anyone logging in could access the same perspective, according to VR experts. Friends from any location would be able to join in the same stream, with all parties appearing to one another in the form of avatars, they say. And depending on the platform the streaming provider uses to broadcast a game in VR, viewers might be able to design the look of their avatars by selecting from a menu of hair styles, skin colors and more.

Fans will also be able to move their virtual seats at any moment during a game on par with the action, as well as engage with virtual objects. “You can throw a tomato” on a soccer field, for example, only it won’t be real, says Mr. Walavalkar. It would be possible, though, to order a real pizza for home delivery without exiting the VR broadcast, he adds.

Sports viewership is also forecast to change with help from other tech. Augmented reality might enable people who attend sports matches in person to see the kind of digital imagery normally reserved for TV screen viewing—such as the strike box in baseball broadcasts—through their smartphones or AR goggles, says Michael Davies, senior vice president of field operations and tech at Fox Sports.

At home, panoramic video could also be on the horizon, or even broadcasts that make it seem as if miniaturized athletes are running across a person’s dining-room table. “You can’t get past the hologram idea, like in ‘Star Wars,’ ” Mr. Davies says.

The Coming Sports DTC Squeeze Play

Original Article: Sports Business Journal, by John Kosner and Ed Desser, January 13, 2020

Cable networks have provided material, growing rights fees and mass exposure for major sports properties for decades, collectively establishing sports’ supremacy within today’s programming bundle. However, MVPD subscriber counts continue falling, and despite rising per-subscriber fees to counteract the circulation decline, the available revenue won’t remain as robust as originally anticipated when the current slate of deals were consummated. Sports rights holders therefore will need to reconsider how best to deploy their content assets as the “squeeze play” ensues: The most powerful few rights holders take an even larger share of rights revenue in upcoming deals; while the media environment bifurcates and virtually everyone else finds that neither the money they hoped for, nor the full distribution they’re used to, remains.

Cable gained favor over traditional telecasts as it reached majority penetration decades ago, and the “dual revenue stream” enabled it to outbid broadcasters for live sports rights. But as cable’s penetration flags, and broadband coverage grows, rights holders are confronted with a new choice between revenue and reach. They must seriously consider hybrid approaches to reach both traditional viewers and engage younger “cable-never” fans. And not just cable, but also the opportunity of wide broadband reach, apps/sites favored by audiences under 30 (like Twitch and YouTube) and direct-to-consumer (DTC) offerings. Yes, today’s 65%-75% cable network penetration of TV homes is still acceptable to most sports properties when coupled with superior rights fees, but once that drifts closer to half or less over the coming decade, it will become necessary to re-slice the rights “salami.”

This has already begun to occur, as the NFL offers “Thursday Night Football” on broadcast (Fox), pay TV (NFLN) and streaming via Yahoo, Amazon Prime, and Twitch platforms. Baseball has added a package on YouTube (formerly on Facebook). We believe as national packages like the NHL, NFL and NBA come up in the next five years, two things will happen:

1. Recognizing that sports is the linchpin (tenuously) holding pay TV together, the “must-have” major pro leagues will strike especially aggressive rights fee increases from existing media companies.

2. The pro leagues will morph their offerings, continuing to offer “traditional” linear coverage, while adding co-branded or sport-branded apps, packages or platforms, which go beyond the historical one-way delivery mechanism, and create added engagement, social, and business integration to new audiences.  

But what will be left for remaining rights holders, after the powerful few make their next set of deals?   

The answers might come first locally. Here, we expect high-level team affinity, combined with the changing economics and ownership of RSNs in the Sinclair/Amazon era (Amazon just bought part of YES for a seat at this table), to accelerate adoption of new models. For example, imagine if a team sold its traditional rights to an RSN (or ironically a broadcaster), but then also launched (or partnered with its RSN to create) a new team-devoted premium OTT product which combines game feeds, additional cameras/angles/replays, with a live stats feed, integrated betting, social interaction with other under 30-something fans, a special team event, merchandise, and game tickets only for these new digital “fan club” subscribers across innovative forms of mobile (e.g., a tighter play-by-play shot), and direct home video distribution. Though the RSN might pay less (like MVPDs do for nonexclusive network affiliates that are also available free over-the-air via antenna), it is confronting falling subs and increasing price resistance from MVPDs, and therefore needs to find some economies like nonexclusive rights to remain relevant — though at the risk of loosening its negotiating leverage. At the same time, teams can attract, and better serve, new-age “never” fans who wouldn’t even consider becoming virtual MVPD subs.   

The new DTC offering is a differentiated product, which provides the team with a direct business relationship with the majority of fans that aren’t ticket or traditional cable buyers, helps them cement their relationship in a way that is impossible via a three-step intermediated RSN (team/network/distributor/fan). With growing wholesale network pricing, RSNs find attaining high penetration from MVPDs more challenging. As the penetration falls, these new combination opportunities will start to look more attractive to teams, while permitting RSNs to moderate rate growth. Of course, RSNs are loath to allow buy-arounds.  

This new world will provide significant business opportunity for streaming companies, app developers and performance marketers. Staring into this coming, grinding, fundamental change, rights holders would be wise to start thinking through their new models now. Just as they have had to confront digital ticketing, the secondary market, and demand for new types of in-venue congregating spaces, teams will now face churn and piracy. Making the new economic media models work will require ongoing marketing, new offers and tailored packaging. In this “new normal” of ADD fans, unlimited quality non-sports competition, and changing fan expectations, that’s the way to still thrive in a world where only the strong survive.

Ed Desser is president of consulting firm Desser Sports Media Inc. (www.desser.tv). John Kosner is president of Kosner Media LLC, a sports and digital consulting company (www.kosnermedia.com). Together they ran the NBA’s media operations in the ’80s and ’90s.

Sports Networks Increasingly Interested in Showing High School Stars

Original Article: Front Office Sports, by Michael McCarthy, December 3rd, 2019

Is high school the next growth area for sports networks?

With media rights for pro and college sports costing billions of dollars, media companies are increasingly eyeing relatively inexpensive high school sports that could have national appeal. The growth of streaming and OTT platforms is allowing media companies to cover high school games that wouldn’t make it to linear TV.

That is perhaps no better exhibited by ESPN electing to show 15 high school basketball games this season highlighting ‘Bronny’ James and Zaire Wade’s Sierra Canyon High School.

Nicknamed Bronny, LeBron James Jr. is the 15-year old freshman son of Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James. Zaire Wade, a 17-year-old senior, is the son of retired Miami Heat star Dwyane Wade. 

Two games featuring this season’s loaded Sierra Canyon squad in Los Angeles are earmarked for the linear ESPN2 and ESPNU TV channels. The other 13 will be shown digitally on ESPN3. 

Dan Margulis, ESPN’s senior director of programming and acquisitions, cited interest in the younger James and Wade, as well as the Trailblazers’ nationally-ranked Ziaire Williams and BJ Boston, for the coverage decision.

“Sierra Canyon is in two of our linear games due to having the number 5 and 9 recruits not to mention the story of Zaire Wade and Bronny James,” said Margulis. “There is a strong national interest in this and because of that, we were able to clear 13 more Sierra Canyon games on ESPN3.”

ESPN’s coverage led some NBA players to joke the younger James is getting more airtime from one of the NBA’s two national TV partners than they are this season. 

“LOL, they got more than us,” tweeted Washington Wizards point guard Isaiah Thomas.

Overall, ESPN’s 2019/2020 high school basketball slate includes 37 games: 11 on the linear ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU Channels; and 26 digitally on ESPN3. The schedule will feature 68 ranked players and 17 ranked programs.

That’s up from 24 total games in 2018/2019 (11 linear; 13 digital) and 11 games (all linear) during the 2017/2018 and 2017/2016 seasons.

Media rights fees for high school sports are tiny compared to pro/college, running hundreds or thousands of dollars. While the financial barrier to entry is low, the decentralized nature of high school sports makes it a herculean undertaking.

There are literally thousands of high schools, hundreds of conferences and dozens of governing bodies. Control over the rights may depend on the state where the school is located, whether the school is public or private and their membership in various governing bodies.

That’s where middlemen like Paragon Marketing Group come into the picture. Back in 2002, the Skokie, Illinois-based company secured the rights to put a Cleveland high school basketball phenom on local TV.

Instead, they took 17-year old LeBron James to ESPN. The Worldwide Leader in Sports nationally televised the game featuring James’ No. 23 St. Vincent-St. Mary High School beating No. 1 Oak Hill Academy. The Chosen One scored 31 points. The era of live, nationally-televised high school games was born.

Eighteen years later, ESPN still works with Paragon to put its high school schedule together. Here’s how it works: ESPN tells Paragon what windows it has available to show high school games. With its intimate knowledge of the high school scene, Paragon picks out the best teams and players that fit ESPN’s requirements.

Paragon deals with coaches and superintendents at “thousands” of high schools nationwide, said Rashid Ghazi, a partner at Paragon.

“It’s a detailed process that requires a lot of diligence, a lot of relationships and a lot of understanding of different schools and different school’s needs. One of the reasons we do it is we are experts in the youth space, we’re experts in the high school space. And we can help ease the process for ESPN to make decisions on what teams we want to put on, what opportunities exist and where are the places to go,” said Ghazi.

“You’ve got to remember, most of these high schools don’t have sports information directors. A lot of schools have athletic directors who are extremely busy running sports day-to-day. So for ESPN, we serve as that one-stop-shop to navigate this world and being experts in it.”

Digital has “completely changed” coverage of high school sports, added Ghazi. The NFHS Network, for example, now streams thousands of high school sporting events nationwide, both live and on-demand.

ESPN has “always been a significant player” in high school sports, noted John Kosner, the 20-year ESPN veteran turned founder of Kosner Media. Due to its longstanding relationships, and the flexibility from ESPN3 and ESPN+, the sports giant has been able to enhance its high school coverage this year.

That extension to covering high school sports stars is only likely to further increase, predicted Kosner.

Fan and media interest are already building around the next young expected star – Emoni Bates, a sophomore small forward from Lincoln High School in Ypsilanti, Mich. 

ESPN ranks Bates as the No. 1 recruit in his 2022 class. He’s been called the “next Kevin Durant” by Forbes.

READ MORE: Overtime Aims To Be Next ESPN For Generation Z

Now, these budding teenage stars are experts at using social media to turn themselves into national, and even global brands before they’re legally able to vote.

Bronny James, for example, already boasts nearly four million social media followers across Instagram and Twitter. 

“What’s changed is that the top (high school) athletes are far savvier about their own media presence and creation than previous generations,” said Kosner, who has teamed with former NBA Commissioner David Stern on the new Micromanagement Ventures investment firm. “You also have new Gen Z media companies like Overtime that really help bring them to life, and expand their audiences globally.”

While it’s easy to take today’s blanket coverage of college sports for granted, it was only a few decades ago that only a few games had national relevance. A similar path may be possible for high school sports as more media outfits take advantage of a low barrier of entry due to smaller rights fees.

That’s one reason start-ups like Brooklyn-based Overtime have prospered. Overtime has used its expertise in high school sports as a springboard to cover all sports as well as launch long-form shows featuring Andre Drummond of the Detroit Pistons and Pro Football Hall of Famer Deion Sanders.

“Overtime is accelerating interest in (high school) sports by both telling – and letting the players themselves tell – their stories,” said Kosner.

There’s always been interest in high school sports, according to Paragon’s Ghazi. Before he became Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, a young Lew Alcindor of Power Memorial Academy sold-out arenas.

But the advent of the Internet and technology is enabling the brightest young stars to become national brands overnight.

READ MORE: ‘Let’s Bring Women In:’ Chargers Lean Into Podcast For Female Fans

As more states ease up travel schedules, more schools are playing national game schedules and showcase events. Social media has enabled high schoolers like Zion Williamson and LaMelo Ball stars to become influencers before they turn pro.

“High school sports have gone from local to regional to national…There’s a large interest in watching these kids play,” Ghazi said. “Not just seeing highlights of them. But seeing full games. The kids themselves are becoming social media entities.”